The conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran has moved from a shocking occurrence to a continual macroeconomic condition within four weeks. As such, Bitcoin has reacted similarly — showing signs of stress through a downward trend in high price ceilings and continuing to decline with stocks whenever bad news is reported. After hitting just over $74,000-$72,000 at the beginning of the week, Bitcoin lost all its gains. Throughout the week, Bitcoin has been down nearly five percent from its weekly high. \ The S&amp;P500, Nasdaq, and Dow have all fallen along with Bitcoin following any bad news. Gold held steady for most of the week before succumbing to selling pressure. The only asset to increase in value was crude oil, up 7.3% for the week and 53% since the start of the conflict on February 28, 2022.The data from crude oil expands to explain a good deal of the other data points.<h2>The FOMC Did What Everyone Expected. Markets Fell Anyway.</h2>No one was surprised when the<a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260318.htm" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>Federal Reserve maintained its rate steady at 3.5% - 3.75% at their March 18th meeting. Based on information received from CME FedWatch, the probability of it remaining unchanged at this meeting was 95.5%. What did surprise many observers was the tone of Powell during his press conference. Powell admitted that increased oil prices have now become part of the Fed's current outlook for inflation; with the<a href="https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/live/march-fed-meeting-2026-live-updates-and-commentary" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>new inflation forecast for 2026 being raised from 2.4% to 2.7%. He rebutted the stagflation comparison by saying that unemployment is still fairly close to historical averages and said that current conditions do not fit into the definition of stagflation. However, market participants did not appear to find his rebuttal convincing as Bitcoin experienced a decline back down to $70,900 shortly after the conclusion of the press conference; and the Nasdaq closed out the session at its low for a loss of 1.5%. In fact, Bitcoin "OGs" (those that have been long term holders through multiple market cycles) sold over<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/18/fed-interest-rate-decision-march-2026.html" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>1,650 BTC (worth somewhere over $117 million) immediately after Powell's hawkish statements. This was not retail sellers panicking — this was experienced market participants reducing their exposure to an economic environment that they are accustomed to. As of today, the futures market has now priced in1 rate hike for the entire calendar year of 2026 contrary to the 2 rate cuts anticipated in January. This change has not occurred due to an improving economy but simply due to the increase in price of oil which now sits above $90; which are now being factored into the inflation models being utilized by every central bank around the world.<h2>The Correlation Problem Hasn't Gone Away</h2>Analysts continue to discuss the relationship between Bitcoin price movements and the performance of US equities — namely software and technology stocks. According to Kevin Crowther from KC Private Wealth, the close correlation of Bitcoin to software companies diminishes Bitcoin's ability to be an effective hedge against economic uncertainty (of which we see very much currently, especially due to Donald Trump's announcement of a 15% global tariff). Everyone was expecting that when the ETFs for Bitcoin were approved by the SEC and institutional interest picked up, the relationship between Bitcoin and traditional financial assets would change, and that would create entirely new demand in the Bitcoin marketplace based on how institutional investors think about using alternative assets. However, it seems as though that is not happening right now. Instead, Bitcoin's ETF related purchasers who had bought46K BTC over the same period last year are now net sellers in 2021/2022 and the structural buying pressure that was expected by both ASPR and other analysts to come into the market after ETF approval has reversed itself. When fighting erupted, the price of bitcoin fell 8.5% on the first day of trading when both the US and Israel began bombing from the air, which was also Saturday morning; thus, bitcoin was the only major asset to trade at that time. After the initial drop in price from its first day of trading, bitcoin has generally recovered from the initial drop in price, recovering approximately 11%. Among all four major asset classes, bitcoin outperformed gold, S&amp;P 500 and major Asian equities over the last four weeks, according to the performance of bitcoin. However bitcoin continues to have resistance to price at/around $73,000 to $74,000, and the price of bitcoin, due to downward pressure from global economies; the price continues to retest from lower levels.<h2>What's Actually Holding the Floor</h2>Strategy Inc. — formerly MicroStrategy — continued buying near the $70,946 level. BlackRock's Coinbase transfers signal that major institutional participants still view Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, not just a risk-on trade. TheFear and Greed Index sat at 15 out of 100 for 38 consecutive days — Extreme Fear territory that historically precedes positive 30-day returns roughly 80% of the time. Sentiment extremes of this magnitude have been reliable contrarian signals in previous cycles — June 2022 and March 2020 both produced rallies from comparable fear readings. Whale accumulation is quietly building beneath the surface. Sell pressure from smaller holders is fading. Miner behavior has stabilized — hash rate drawdowns reflect price-driven machine shutdowns rather than structural capitulation, according to Bybit's chief market analyst Han Tan.<h2>The Range and What Breaks It</h2>Bitcoin is consolidating between $66,600 and $74,000. A breakdown below $66,600 opens technical support at $64,800. Below that, the next meaningful demand zone sits near $62,300. A sustained close above $74,000 points toward the<a href="https://www.spotedcrypto.com/top-coins-buy-extreme-fear-march-2026/" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank"> </a>$80,000 to $81,000 range that analysts at 21Shares and K33 Research have flagged as the medium-term target if geopolitical pressure eases. The variables that resolve the range are not technical. They're geopolitical and monetary. Iran negotiations, oil prices, and Powell's next press conference are doing more work than any chart pattern right now. Bitcoin priced the war first. It will price the peace first too.

Bitcoin weakens as war and rising oil prices drive risk-off sentiment, increasing correlation with stocks. Despite institutional support and whale accumulation, macro forces keep BTC range-bound.

Bitcoin Weakness Deepens as War Pushes Traders to Cut Risk in BTC and Stocks


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