Two senators from the Democratic party are raising concerns that prediction markets such as Polymarket can allow individuals to engage in insider trading based on event outcomes that are of potential life-or-death significance. These senators have introduced a new bill called the Better Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Act (BETS OFF), which prohibits the trading or wagering on certain activities: military strikes, terrorist acts, assassination attempts, and any action taken by a federal government or other entity where there is prior knowledge or control of the outcome. This bill follows numerous questionable events that had occurred through the platform of Polymarket in the hours leading up to a military strike by the United States and Israel against Iran. <img src="https://jid.rerrkvifj.com/media/customer/creatorSystem/42002cea-1352-459d-b4f3-d9c6cd6fa825.png"><a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0HbDODxhWNo" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">Rep. Greg Casar and Sen. Chris Murphy at their March 17, 2026 press conference announcing the BETS OFF Act</a> <h2>Suspicious Bets Sparked the Push</h2>There were several indicators that helped to identify suspicious activity. Initially, 150 people placed what appeared to be very odd bets in Polymarket, and these bets were placed the day before the US and Iran went to war. Out of these individuals, 109 of them made over $10,000 profit in one day, and 16 out of these 150 people made over $100,000 profit in one day. One individual was able to take out nearly $500,000 from Polymarket.Murphy has indicated in the past on March 4, that it appeared that some individuals were placing large bets in Polymarket using their "insider information" about US President Trumps plans to bomb Iran. Casar was very frank when he stated, "...the fact that individuals placing bets on whether to invade a foreign country or bomb them could have $10s or $100s of thousands of dollars tied up to those bets should concern everyone.<h2>What the BETS OFF Act Would Do</h2><h3>Under this bill, prediction markets won't be able to offer contracts on:</h3> <ol><li data-list="bullet">Our leaders' decisions or other sensitive operations they may be involved in</li><li data-list="bullet">Events that are related to terrorism, war or assassination</li><li data-list="bullet">Any event that has a known outcome or that one person or a few people control or manage</li></ol> Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi allowed people to place bets based on elections and other geopolitical events and their popularity has expanded dramatically. Democrats contend that creating prediction markets would provide perverse incentives for leaders to make decisions that are related to the potential to profit financially from those decisions. The Trump Administration has been supportive of using prediction markets to improve forecasting accuracy.The basis for many of the objections of this legislation against establishing prediction markets is that they pose a risk of corruption.<h2>Broader Context and What’s Next</h2>Prediction markets have seen previous criticisms; Bets on regime change in Venezuela and other international betting triggered some serious investigations into potential insider trading issues. In essence, the BETS OFF Act is part of an ever-expanding conversation surrounding whether or not these types of online wagering operations serve as harmless "crowd wisdom" or represent an opportunity for an unethical profit at the expense of the United States' own national security.The bill has a difficult path ahead due to Republican control over Congress. However, it has the opportunity to generate public interest by connecting prediction betting with rumored leaks from the White House. Murphy and Casar are calling this a battle against corrupt individuals in high office.Regardless if the bill passes or fails, there are already many conversations occurring regarding the relationship between betting sites and insider information.

Democrats have introduced the BETS OFF Act to ban prediction market betting on wars and sensitive government matters, citing risks to national security and public ethics.

Democrats Push BETS OFF Act to Ban Prediction Market Bets on War and Government Secrets


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